Alabama Winter Storm Update: Impacts and Timeline

As the weekend approaches, we continue to track a developing winter weather system closely. While the forecast has shifted a few times, even small changes in the storm's path can significantly impact what we ultimately see in West Alabama.

The bigger picture is that Alabama is among the 33 states that could be affected by this winter storm. This weather system “could affect over 180 million people in the U.S. with snow and/or ice,” said The Weather Channel.

Winter Storm Watch Areas

A Winter Storm Watch was issued in advance of the weekend threat, kicking in Friday at 6 p.m. and lasting through Sunday at 6 p.m. It does include a few West Alabama counties, such as Fayette, Lamar, and Walker.

In the Winter Storm Watch area, the possible impacts are heavy mixed precipitation. Ice accumulation above one-quarter inch. Snow and sleet accumulations of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible.

Model Guidance

There is tons of chatter about the models, and they have currently “come into better agreement on the track of a surface low near or just south of Birmingham on Sunday morning,” said the National Weather Service in Birmingham. “Warm air advection ahead of the low is now forecast to keep temperatures above freezing Saturday night in many areas of Central Alabama.”

What to Know

“For most of Alabama, this will be simply a big rain event; the greatest risk of ice accumulation from freezing rain will be over the northwest and northeast corners of the state," said James Spann, Alabama Weather Network and Townsquare Media Tuscaloosa Chief Meteorologist.

“But black ice could be an issue for the entire northern half of the state Sunday night and Monday as temperatures fall rapidly into the teens after the rain.”

Temperature Drop Sunday

Here is one of my main weather concerns: On Sunday, as the surface low moves eastward into Georgia, temperatures could drop sharply by 20 to 30 degrees in some areas. This also means that the northern half of the state could be at or below freezing by Sunday afternoon.

“Icy travel is possible over the northern half of the state late Sunday, Sunday night, and into the day Monday,” said Spann.

West Alabama Impacts Zones

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has assigned various risk zones for the incoming storm system for Friday night – Sunday night. The risk zones are minor, moderate, major, and extreme.

Bibb – Northern section of the county under Minor

Fayette – Split between Major and Moderate

Greene – Northern half of the county under Minor

Hale – very small Northern section of the county under Minor

Lamar – Major

Perry – no risk assigned

Pickens – Split between Moderate and Minor

Sumter – Northern half of the county under Minor

Tuscaloosa – most of the county under Minor, and the small northwest corner under Moderate

Walker – Split between Major and Moderate

The Townsquare Media Weather Center will continue to monitor the winter weather system and provide you with updates as needed.

Mary K. – Weather Forecaster